3D NAND Memory Prices Could Double in Early 2026

A substantial increase in flash memory costs is anticipated for the first quarter of 2026. According to analysts at Nomura Securities, SanDisk is planning to more than double prices for high-capacity 3D NAND chips designed for solid-state drives (SSDs).

A Nomura research note points to aggressive price revisions by several memory suppliers, with NAND contract prices potentially rising by over 100% quarter-on-quarter. Experts link this dynamic to a combination of factors: short-term supply shortages and sustained mid-term demand growth, largely fueled by artificial intelligence.

A defining feature of the current moment is the changing architecture of data storage systems for AI infrastructure. As one driver of demand, Nomura cites platforms like the NVIDIA Inference Context Memory Storage Platform (ICMSP), which utilizes a combination of BlueField-4 DPUs and 512GB SSDs for caching. Such solutions, deployed in AI servers, increase the aggregate volume of memory required.

Analysts emphasize that even large-scale projects by individual vendors are not the sole reason for the potential price doubling. The industry produces hundreds of exabytes of NAND annually. A more substantial factor appears to be the broader acceleration in the transition by major data centers and hyperscalers to high-performance storage systems necessary for running modern AI algorithms.

Traditionally, prices for flash memory used in client devices like smartphones and laptops follow the corporate segment with some lag, as the chips are manufactured in the same fabs. This means that, in time, the wave of price increases could also reach end-users, although the scale of the hike for consumer SSDs will likely be less severe. The situation in the memory market demonstrates how the rapid development of artificial intelligence technologies is beginning to directly impact supply chains and pricing in adjacent industries, creating new demand dynamics for key components.