DDR5 to Soar 50% This Summer: Buy Now or Wait Two Years?

Taiwanese memory maker Transcend has released a grim forecast for anyone planning to build or upgrade a PC in the coming months. The cost of DDR5 modules in Q2 2026 will be 40–50% higher than in January–March. That’s according to the company’s CEO, commenting on the recent short-lived drop in retail memory prices.

On the surface, the situation might have looked like the market was cooling off: retail DRAM prices in China did indeed edge down — but contract prices, which manufacturers and large buyers negotiate for bulk supply, keep rising. Transcend’s forecast almost perfectly matches the assessment of analysts at TrendForce, who expect contract prices for conventional DRAM to jump 58–63% quarter over quarter.

The main reason is persistent shortages. Buyers are forced to place orders almost daily, trying to lock in whatever volumes they can amid constrained production — but even that doesn’t guarantee results. Long‑term contracts, which used to ensure stable supply, no longer help either: memory makers simply can’t fulfill their commitments in full or on time.

The biggest market players (Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron) are actively scaling back production of older memory (DDR4 and MLC NAND). The problem is that they can’t quickly ramp up output of DDR5 and modern TLC/QLC NAND. The transition takes time — retooling equipment, reworking supply chains — and the market can’t adjust fast enough, so the shortage only gets worse. Recently there have been rumors that aggressive capacity expansion by Chinese memory makers could limit further price hikes, but Transcend sees it differently. First, the new production lines from Samsung, Micron, and SK hynix won’t add meaningful volume for at least a year or two. And second, while Chinese companies are indeed expanding output, their contribution to global supply this year will remain limited.

It looks like high prices and memory shortages will be with us for a long time. Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron have only just started bringing new production lines online, and the first real results won’t show up for a year — maybe two. Throughout that time, the market will live with tight supply and rising prices. For the average user, this means building or upgrading a PC in spring or summer 2026 will cost significantly more than it did at the start of the year — and so far there’s no sign that prices will go down.

Are you planning to upgrade your computer in the coming months, or will you wait out this price spike — even if it takes years for things to stabilize? Share your thoughts in the comments.